According to conventional wisdom, US President-elect Biden will find himself immediately paralyzed because Republicans will follow the same obstructionist playbook they used to sabotage Barack Obama’s administration. But there are five new features of US political dynamics that this argument has overlooked.
It is now more clear than ever that Europe must take its security, broadly understood, into its own hands. Doing so will not only secure the European Union’s proper place on the world stage, but will also ensure a healthy transatlantic partnership in the years ahead.
Read MoreAmerica has been drifting away from Europe for decades. A Biden presidency cannot change this. Europe must come to terms with the currents, not just the personalities, determining its future.
Read MoreResearch suggests that US President Donald Trump’s claims of fraud in the 2020 election could be a psychological strategy, deftly executed by a master manipulator. If so, the president may be paving the way to persuading large numbers of Americans to reject the legitimacy of his defeat.
Read MoreWe live in a world of the improbable. Black swans, fat tails, Brexit and Donald Trump remind us that the improbable is possible, sometimes even likely. The same is true when it comes to inflation.
Read MoreWith rapid globalization and technological innovation have come profound new risks not just to individuals and countries, but to humanity's survival. The current stage in our history demands an entirely new ethical perspective, one that requires an ability to think in species-level terms.
Read MoreLike in an avalanche involving a group of skiers where each has their own interpretation of the risk, there is no correct ‘moral’ stance when it comes to the pandemic. Amidst the complexity of trying to predict a disaster, we each bring our own assessment of the risk. But, democracy demands that even though we may disagree, we still see each other as worthy of respect.
Read MoreUS President Donald Trump has seeded the investment environment with uncertainty, trashed America’s trade relationships, blown up the fiscal deficit, and left American workers worse off than they were when he took office. He is the polar opposite of Joe Biden, a politician who understands precisely what the US economy needs.
Read MoreSome regard the United Nations as one of the greatest achievements of the so-called liberal international order that was conceived at the end of World War II, while others argue that the organization has never been very liberal, international, or ordered. Both positions have become clichés, but the second is closer to the truth.
Read MoreAre we still a nation that believes that character counts? Are we still guided by a strong moral compass?
Read MoreToday’s international trade regime was not designed for a world of data, software, and artificial intelligence. Already under severe pressure from China’s rise and the backlash against hyper-globalization, it is utterly inadequate to face the three main challenges these new technologies pose.
Read MoreAlthough the Fed’s August policy update reinforced some analyst’s positive view of U.S. stocks going forward, it does not inspire much confidence in continued upside. Put simply, low-interest rates are mostly priced into stocks.
Read MoreWhile it is true that bullish equity markets are out of step with the historic contraction in the real economy, to say that they are disconnected from it misses the point.
Read MoreAcross Western advanced economies, a widespread sense of malaise has given rise to a debate about what the state can and should do to ensure economic justice, particularly for those at the bottom of the income ladder.
Read MoreToday, there is an important opportunity for businesses to engage in a “Race to the Top” as they re-design their practices to be attractive not only to investors, consumers, and employees, but also to the communities in which they participate.
Read MoreFor long periods of economic history, societies have built walls to defend themselves, relying on local suppliers to a domestic marketplace. Today, economic, public health and political factors are driving a similar trend toward self-reliance again, with all that it implies.
Read MoreThis past week, the S&P 500 reached all-time highs. Yet the market’s recent peak will prove ephemeral if not supported by stronger foundations.
Read MoreThe good news is that the unprecedented initial policy response to the economic downturn triggered by COVID-19 has averted a worst-case scenario, making comparisons to the Great Depression unwarranted.
Read MoreObservers of US-China relations increasingly talk of a new cold war. On top of a long-running trade war, the two countries now find themselves in a destructive cycle of mutual sanctions, consulate closings, and increasingly bellicose official speeches.
Read MoreNow that the world’s benchmark equity index—the S&P500—has closed in on its pre-pandemic and all-time highs, it’s useful to carefully examine valuations and drivers of market performance.
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